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🏃🏻♂️⏰ It’s TIME: Mongolia’s Election Money Race
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Hello from the other side! Government spending is hitting new highs, and the budget is already shaking up Mongolia’s political scene. From 2027, everything from the minimum wage to pensions and government spending is expected to rise. And, in the iconic Mariah Carey voice: IT’S TIME. 🙂↕️
The election marathon has officially started. Let’s catch up. 🧐
What’s inside today’s edition…
🏛️ A Special Session on the Budget Revision
🏃🏻♂️ Mongolia’s Election Money Race
💍 Marriage in Mongolia: Marrying Later, Divorcing Younger
We’ve got a lot to cover, so let’s get moving. 🐐
MARKET
SK: South Korea to expand pre-departure safety training for Mongolian workers, launch AI counseling for 6 countries including Mongolia.
VNM: Vietnam National Assembly President to visit Mongolia from 9-11 September to strengthen ties.
MNG: Parliament to hold a special session today to discuss only the budget revision.
🏃🏻♂️⏰ It’s TIME: Building the Fiscal War Chest for the Elections
The next two years will be decisive for Mongolian politics, with a presidential election in 2027 and a parliamentary election in 2028. Against this backdrop, the 2027 budget is set to surge past ₮40 trillion, raising questions over how much money the government is building up for the election cycle.
👀 The Election-Year Pattern
Since 2008, budget expenditure has grown by an average of 28.5% in election years, 13.4 percentage points higher than in non-election years. Spending has repeatedly jumped ahead of elections, rising 47.1% in 2008 and 20.4% in 2012. The pattern continued in 2024, when spending also recorded strong growth on an outturn basis.
💭 Where Will the Money Come From?
The government has proposed raising expenditure by roughly ₮10 trillion from the approved 2026 level to a record ₮43.6 trillion, with a ₮2.3 trillion deficit and ₮41.3 trillion in revenue. The expansion is not primarily driven by a broader tax base. Instead, the government expects ₮3.5 trillion in dividends from state-owned companies, including Oyu Tolgoi’s “first” dividend.
⏰ The timing is notable. On June 30, 2026, the government and Rio Tinto agreed to cut the shareholder loan interest rate from 10.5% to 7.9% and roughly halve management fees. The government then announced it would receive its first Oyu Tolgoi dividend this year.
🧩 But Oyu Tolgoi’s finances are complex. The project carries project finance, sponsor and shareholder loans. Under the traditional structure, Mongolia would not receive meaningful dividends until loans and accumulated interest are repaid.
This leaves a key question. Does the “first dividend” in 2026-2027 represent a political arrangement that departs from Oyu Tolgoi’s long-term financial structure? Meanwhile, current expenditure is projected at ₮33.6 trillion in 2027, indicating that the expansion is flowing more toward consumption and transfers than investment.
Overall… The pattern is familiar. Build up the fiscal pool ahead of elections, then cut spending after them. Sadly, fiscal discipline has rarely survived Mongolia’s election cycle.
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POLITICS
Mongolia’s President at the SCO Summit. (TheDiplomat)
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Cuba and Mongolia Strengthen Educational Ties in Diplomatic Meeting. (CubaMinrex)
Mongolia to Keep Importing Fuel from Russia After Launch of Refinery. (Interfax)
China, Russia, Mongolia Hold Border Defense Cooperation 2026 Joint Exercise. (MOD)
Mongolia’s Fuel Crisis is Being Exploited by Individuals Linked to Corruption. (EUReporter)
CULTURE & LIFESTYLE
🧑🧑🧒💍 Marriage in Mongolia
Mongolians are marrying later and divorcing younger. As the age of first marriage rises, the number of new marriages is falling, while divorce remains stubbornly high.
🙂↕️ First Marriage Is Happening 4 Years Later
The average age at first marriage has increased by roughly four years over the past 25 years. Women now marry at around 26-27, while men marry at 28-29, up from an average of 24.7 in 2000. Education, employment, housing and income are among the factors behind the delay, which also pushes back childbearing. Registered marriages fell from 20,000 in 2019 to 14,200 in 2024 and 12,600 in 2025.
🏠 Women Head 1/3 of Households
This shift is also reflected in household structures. Mongolia had around 1 million households in 2025, with 68.5% headed by men and 31.5% by women. Of the 317,000 female-headed households, 78.7% are in urban areas. Between the 2 censuses, the number of married people increased by 9.5%, or 123,800, while those who had never married rose by 2.9% and widowed people by 5.4%.
💔 At the same time, the number of divorced people rose by 32.8%, or 16,900. In 2024, 4,500 divorces were recorded against 14,200 marriages, equivalent to around 30% of new marriages, with 89% of divorces registered in urban areas.
📉 Divorce Is Shifting Toward Ages 35-44
The age profile is changing as well. Divorce was previously most common among those aged 44-54, but the peak has shifted to 35-44. In 2025, 34.3% of divorced men and 31.3% of divorced women were in this age group.
👨👩👧 Households Are Getting Smaller
Meanwhile, household size is shrinking. 1 and 2 member households now make up the largest share, overtaking 3-4 member households. Compared with the previous census, they increased by 31.2% in urban areas and 25.3% in rural areas. They account for 40.6% of rural households, while 3-4 member households make up 35.5% of urban households. Households with 5-6 and 7+ members declined by 0.1-0.4 percentage points.
Overall… Mongolians are marrying later, living in smaller households and divorcing at younger ages. If this trend continues, it could reshape Mongolia’s demographic outlook in the years ahead.
Sound familiar?
Over 4 million people have had the same lightbulb moment.
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